Average mining volumes will increase from 150 million mt/y today to 240 million
mt/y in 2028 before reaching 290 million mt/y from 2030 onwards. (Photo: Barrick Gold)

Barrick President and CEO Mark Bristow said the expansion unlocks the potential to transform the Lumwana mine into a long-life, high yielding, top 25 copper producer and a Tier 1 copper mine, capable of contending with the volatility of the copper demand cycles.

The expansion involves first doubling throughput by twinning the existing process circuit and then by significantly increasing mining volumes. Plant throughput will grow from the current 27 million metric tons (mt) to 52 million mt, doubling the mine’s annual copper production from 120,000 mt/y to a life-of-mine average of 240,000 mt/y. The process expansion is supported by a ramp-up of total mining volumes, which are planned to increase incrementally year-on-year, from 150 million mt in 2024 to approximately 240 million mt in 2028; and then to an average rate of 290 million mt/y from 2030 onwards.

“The phased ramp-up will enable a competitive cost profile over the life of the mine and annual operating cash flow and free cash flow are projected to improve by as much as 85% and 60%, respectively, based on the long-term copper price consensus,” Barrick’s COO for Africa and Middle East Sebastiaan Bock said. “These production and cost improvements will contribute to an estimated incremental net present value (NPV8) of $1.7 billion.

At a flat long term average copper price consensus of $4.13/lb, Barrick estimates that the project will deliver an incremental internal rate of return (IRR) of 20% and a total mine IRR of more than 50%, paying back the initial expansion capital in approximately two years after completion of the expansion. Post-expansion, cost of sales and C1 cash costs are estimated at approximately $2.36/lb and $1.85/lb, respectively, placing Lumwana in the first quartile of the industry, excluding the benefit of any byproducts.

According to Barrick’s Mineral Resource Management and Evaluation Executive Simon Bottoms, the process plant engineering has matured to a point that has allowed Barrick to select major equipment vendors and place orders for long-lead equipment, including both mills and crushers. “We are starting detailed engineering works this quarter and expanding our onsite accommodation while building partnerships with key suppliers and contractors ahead of the pre-construction ground preparation works, which are scheduled to start next year,” Bottoms said.

Commissioning of the new process plant is planned to start in the second half of 2027. Once the new process circuit is commissioned, the existing circuit will undergo a series of planned shutdowns, allowing Barrick to install upgrades, while ensuring uninterrupted copper delivery throughout the expansion.

The permitting process for the expansion is well underway, with the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment already submitted to the Zambian authorities and approval expected by the end of this year.